Hi Next Gen'ers,

Well, I have to hand it to them...passing a concurrent resolution to bypass the Governor...very creative. It won't work but it is definitely a creative approach.

In case you missed it, the House and Senate are working on concurrent resolutions for a continuation budget. Essentially, everything currently appropriated would be enacted and one-time spending would be eliminated unless a budget is passed by the end of the fiscal year. This would go out for a vote in November 2024. Yes, they have the votes to get it to the ballot. Yes, the majority of voters would probably agree that it sounds like a logical approach to ensure we "keep the doors open".

We know that it's a way for them to cut us without needing to take action to cut us. Feels like a good day to share the love so here are my Top 5 Reasons Why It Will Fail.

#5 Possible Prop 132 Trigger - When Assessed Values decline and you hold at the same levy then the tax rate will increase. We just need one instance where this event can be considered to be an implementation of "a tax" and this would trigger the Prop 132 requirement to need a 60% vote in order to be enacted and I doubt they can get 60% of the vote.

#4 Attack is Too Broad - The continuation budget wouldn't just undermine the Governor or keep funds away from School Districts. This would hit everyone. All aspects of State Government and all of those who work closely with the State Government. It would mean that everyone would be at risk of having their needs ignored no matter how significant, they would be collateral damage for a skinny budget. This means that everyone will have an incentive to attack this idea.

#3 Baby Out With the Bath Water - Every year we have session laws that have intent to become permanent law. In some cases, the session law is repeated each year and JLBC will include their anticipated renewal in the baseline budget. This opens up a gray area for an item like the $800 Million that is rolled over for K-12. If this ever happens then I think they will find that they are going to put themselves in danger of swallowing a few poison pills that they don't want to see.

#2 Continuation Budget Could Violate the Balanced Budget Compact - If you continue the budget from the preceding year after a significant decline in revenue then there is a good chance that you will be over budgeted. This would be a violation of ARS and I would have to double check but I believe we have something in the Constitution on this too.

#1 Don't Underestimate Hobbs - If I can come up with a Top 5 on what can rip this idea apart then how effective can our Governor and her team of lawyers, including the AG, be in ripping this apart between now and the next election.

Hang in there Next Gen'ers...a lot of bad ideas floating around but over 90% of them will die out. One more important side note...don't wait for 2024. If you have a question to ask your voters then go out this year. 2024 will be a crowded ballot and most likely a lot of people at the polls who don't feel warm and fuzzy.

Jeremy