Hi Next Gen'ers,

The politics are heating up but the power downtown is split and the coffers aren't as full this year, so expect a lot of talk and a lot less action out of this session. That being said, here's a look at some of the conversations:

Straight to the Point

• Aggregate Expenditure Limit - if/when to expect the override
• Hobbs vs. the Legislature - where they stand
• Ducey Era Pet Projects - Staying or Going?
• The ESA Double Dip - Somebody Listened... but it's a Charter #sad

All the DetailsThe AEL is one of several items being used to determine who's in charge. In her campaign, Hobbs had assured educators that not only would they get an exemption but also a permanent fix. The exemption should still have the votes, but it's a tricky issue since the direct control rests with the legislature. We appear to be trapped in the middle of a game of chicken... who is going to flinch first.

Most groups have come out in support of the AEL Exemption, but one group has stood up to oppose it and call for more "reforms" (Arizona Freedom Caucus). You can expect that this will run even closer to the deadline than last year.

State Grants are exempted from the AEL, so an AEL backfill grant could be created if the cut was implemented, but then you need an emergency clause... Hobbs could test the limits of her power by backfilling AEL through an executive order. If the exemption doesn't happen, then I wouldn't expect the fight to just end on March 1.

Overall on the Budget, Hobbs has asked for a 3% increase on our base, which should be more than reasonable since inflation is still at 6.5% despite the increases on the prime rate by the Feds. The legislature is attempting to pass a skinny budget that would just keep all spending at the same level. This is a signal that they want to hunker down for a long fight. However, there's no money.

JLBC is saying $1.8 Billion for one-time expenditures, but cuts to ongoing funding are needed by FY25. It's hard enough to get support to push an idea through when there is money and all of the power is with the same party. Now there's no money and the power is split, so despite what we're hearing... I expect them to wrap up at the end of May.

Results Based Funding, College Credit by Examination, and other programs put in during the Ducey Days are now very vulnerable. It's not quite the slam dunk as it was to get rid of programs like Brewer's Student Success Fund, but I still expect a lot of Ducey's ideas to be on the chopping block. They need to make cuts to make room for their new ideas, and these seem like easy targets to get enough votes, including the Governor's approval. These programs have been around for several years now, and many Districts and Charters have grown accustomed to them. I expect some resistance to just eliminating them, so they may need to invent a viable replacement program in order to get enough votes.

I've sent several emails about the major loophole with the ESA language and I'm not surprised a bit about who the first will be to take advantage of it. I once took a tour of a Great Hearts campus when they were lobbying to keep small school weights. They tried to convince me that reporting a single building as 3 different Charter Holders was valid and not a manipulation of small school weights. Those bills passed and that issue is fixed now but Great Hearts has announced Great Hearts Christos to be paired with their Charter Schools.

The next 33 days will teach us a lot about what to expect over the next 4 years so grab a bucket of popcorn and some blood pressure medication as we watch it all unfold. Have a good weekend everyone!